A scan of short-term rental listings shows more hosts appear to be breaking Vancouver's rules than following them.
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VANCOUVER -- A new scan of short-term rentals in Vancouver has concluded that there are more hosts appearing to break the City of Vancouver’s rules than are abiding by them — though the figures are disputed by one of the biggest short-term rental platforms.
And one of those potential rule-breakers may actually have been appointed to a city panel designed to address the problem, according to housing advocate Rohana Rezel, who designed the program that got the data.
“I found that more than half of all the listings are non-compliant,” said Rezel. “The people who may have been worried about the City of Vancouver doing any enforcement have become more brazen.”
The rules were implemented in past years to limit the impact of short-term rentals on the city’s expensive housing market, chiefly by restricting them to primary residences and requiring them to display a licence.
Rezel’s program scanned public listings on the largest short-term rental website, Airbnb, and compared them to a public list of short-term rental licences prepared by the City of Vancouver.
He said of the approximately 2,900 listings available to be booked for less than 30 days, about 1,300 are using expired licenses. He said about 160 are claiming “dubious exemptions,” 103 are reusing a licence for multiple homes, and 47 are using “obviously fake” licences.
Airbnb itself disputed Rezel’s findings, telling CTV News in a statement, “This is a ridiculous and inaccurate description of the state of the short-term rentals in Vancouver,” adding that the platform has an agreement to share data with the City of Vancouver, which is responsible for enforcement of city rules.
That enforcement may have taken a hit as the city struggles during a pandemic, said Coun. Pete Fry.
“Our staff are totally overwhelmed with the response to COVID-19,” he said. “We have a lot of challenges with capacity but it’s a big concern if they’re not following city rules.”
The city has appointed 14 volunteers to a short-term rentals community working group, which will meet five times over the next year to give feedback on city rules and procedures. The group was designed to have feedback from strata council members, renters, and short-term rental hosts.
Three of the listings that turned up in the scan appeared to be operated by one of the people who had just been appointed to the group, said Rezel. He said the person is operating three listings with one expired licence.
CTV News reached out to that person via Airbnb, but didn’t hear back.
Fry said it may be a good thing that someone on the panel doesn’t have a current licence — because part of the consultation can be to better understand why.
“Maybe having a non-compliant host is a good measure to getting a well-rounded workshop, and maybe they’ll be compliant coming out of this workshop,” he said.
Another working group member, Ulrike Rodrigues, joined after a long battle against as many as a dozen units that operated under one landlord in her East Vancouver building at the same time.
“We had some unusual scenarios of creating noise and problems,” she said, adding that not having people live in the building deprived some residents of a chance to build community with neighbours.
A B.C. tribunal ordered that landlord to stop operating short-term rentals in July. The landlord told CTV News that he has.
Realtor Noam Dolgin was also appointed to the short-term rental working group. He said he wants to help the city find a balance, so people can use the platform the way it was initially designed: to let people rent out spare rooms or get some income while on vacation.
“It’s so important that people who want to fill their homes can do if they’re on vacation, make a bit of money. I travelled on Airbnb in its early days. I think it’s a really wonderful option so we need to make sure it works for people,” he said.
Dolgin said he helped a strata write bylaws that allowed short-term rentals but limited them to 90 days in a year, which is working well so far, he said.
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The Airbnb website is seen in this file photo. (AFP PHOTO/John MACDOUGALL)
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Canadian real estate prices may take a big tumble, Bay Street researchers warn. Veritas Investment Research, a prominent Canadian firm, sent institutional clients a real estate forecast. The firm warned real estate price declines are unlikely, except in the event of supply shock. They now believe supply shock may arrive soon, and can send prices up to 26% lower.
About The Numbers
Veritas’ analysis is geared to investment managers, so it’s different from a bank forecast. The firm used regression analysis in its conclusion with various risk scenarios. They concluded months of inventory has the highest correlation with prices. Recently, the market has been tight, sending prices higher during a recession. They believe that’s about to change when mortgage deferrals expire, and things get back to “normal.”
The firm’s model is based on a percent of mortgage payment deferrals turning into inventory. They gave scenarios for 5%, 10%, or 15% of homeowners with deferrals turning into sellers. This isn’t the same as assuming they’ll default. While some people will default, you typically never default if you can sell first. Canada’s tight housing supply means most people can do that, instead of defaulting. This is a point the CMHC has recently made as well, so it’s not an outlandish assumption. It’s actually an ideal scenario.
We should also first add, they warned clients about the uncertainty during the pandemic. Since pretty much nothing has been predictable, they’re advising clients to watch the months of inventory closely. In other words, do your own due diligence, but this is what they’re watching for and expect at this time.
Canadian Real Estate Prices To Drop Up To 11%
Canadian real estate prices are expected to make modest to substantial declines. The firm’s model suggests potential price declines between 4 and 11 percent. As stated before, this is based on the assumption inventory will rise as a result of deferrals turning into listings. This doesn’t include additional supply, which Canada is currently building records amounts of, and is often flipped back into resale markets.
Toronto Real Estate Prices May Drop Up To 26%
Toronto real estate has the largest dive in the forecast. The firm expects a potential price drop between 15 and 26 percent. For the regional models, they assumed a distribution of deferrals was similar to that of all real estate markets. However, CMHC deferral data shows Toronto may be overrepresented in the deferrals.
Vancouver Real Estate Prices To Drop Up To 17%
Vancouver real estate’s prices are forecasted to make a smaller drop than Toronto. The firm sees a potential price drop between 10 and 17 percent. They are once again assuming a proportional distribution of deferrals. Worth mentioning, the CMHC also forecasted smaller price declines for Vancouver as well. However, their numbers didn’t show as quick of a recovery for prices as Toronto.
The firm expects this price movement around six months after the inventory increase. The timeline puts it fairly close to when the CMHC has been forecasting. The forecast is a little more aggressive than those of banks and other vested interests. However, it’s similar to what other institutional risk advisory firms have forecasted. It’s also similar to Canada’s state-backed mortgage insurer.
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LONDON — The coronavirus crisis pushed global debt levels to a new high of over $272 trillion in the third quarter, the Institute for International Finance said, as it warned of the “attack of the debt tsunami.”
Among advanced nations, debt surged above 432% of GDP in the third quarter — a 50 percentage points increase from 2019.
Canada’s national tax agency clarified a major news organization’s allegations of CERB “ineligibility” is, well… not entirely accurate. The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) responded to our request for clarification on tax-filer application data yesterday. CRA spokesperson Pamela Tourigny didn’t just clarify the data, but also generously provided their take on CERB fraud, and how they plan on dealing with it.
No, 800,000 Canadians Didn’t Collect CERB While Ineligible
Despite the rumors started by a major news organization, the data doesn’t show hundreds of thousands of ineligible CERB claims. This mistake was due to people interpreting 800,000 claims without taxes filed in 2019, as ineligible. Like we pointed out when breaking down the impact to income flow, unfiled 2019 taxes didn’t necessarily mean applicants are ineligible. It just meant the data wasn’t ready, and will need verification later.
“For the emergency benefits, there is no requirement for individuals to have filed a tax return. As such, it would be erroneous to conclude that claims from applicants who have not filed a tax return are being paid out to fraudsters or to non-eligible individuals. Income eligibility for Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) is determined based on an individual having earned a minimum of $5,000 (before taxes) in the last 12 months, or in 2019 from one of the following sources: employment, self-employment or provincial benefit payments related to maternity or paternity leave.”
The CRA Will Verify CERB Eligibility Next Tax Season
It would be naive to say some Canadians didn’t cheat the system. It’s a fact some people cheated to get CERB. However, it’s a little more difficult to know if they intentionally did it, or it was accidental. The CRA won’t have the full data to verify these circumstances until the end of this tax year. They mention they’ll be verifying this information during the next tax season.
“…we will take steps at a later time to verify that claimants were eligible to receive payments for any COVID-related economic measures. The CRA has records of those who received the CERB and for what period. These will be used, along with tax slips received from employers and other relevant information available to the CRA, to validate eligibility next tax filing season. Where eligibility is in question, a review will be conducted to ensure that recipients were only paid amounts they were entitled to.”
No, Repayment Won’t Be An Unfair Burden On Low Income Households
The other concern frequently circulating is low income Canadians found to be ineligible, will be punished. That’s not exactly the case. If the CRA finds people were ineligible, they plan on working with them to create a repayment plan based on their income. In this case, the economy essentially used a pull-forward mechanism on consumer spending. For those that refuse to repay if found ineligible, the agency claims they may take further legal action. Below is the statement from the CRA:
“The CRA is sensitive to the hardship of Canadians still facing the financial impacts of COVID-19. The payment arrangement parameters have been expanded to give Canadians more time and flexibility to repay based on their ability to pay. If an individual is unable to repay ineligible CERB amounts, we will evaluate their situation and follow-up when their financial circumstances change. Canadians who applied for the CERB in good faith, and later determined they were ineligible will be required to pay money back without penalties or interest. For situations when an individual has the capacity to pay and refuses to reach a mutually acceptable payment arrangement, the CRA may take legal action.”
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Canada’s emergency benefit applications are giving a little more insight into income disruption. Canada Revenue Agency data presented to the House of Commons shows a breakdown of CERB applicant income from last year. The data, first reported by Blacklock’s Reporter, shows hundreds of thousands of applicants didn’t file taxes at the time of application. More interesting though, is the number of high income applicants. Tens of thousands of CERB applicants made six-figures last year. This shows an altered income pattern for many of Canada’s top earners.
Why Is This Important?
Today we’re looking at CERB applicants by income reported in tax filings the previous year. For non-Canadians, the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) was a $2,000 monthly emergency payment, given to people with pandemic related income losses. This is a similar amount made by many low income Canadians. However, it’s a lot lower than the income made by thousands of people that applied.
Somewhat surprising, is that tens of thousands of relatively high income Canadians applied for CERB. Now, this isn’t a rich bashing piece to say they didn’t need it. This tells us about a disruption in income, or a delay some Canadians made paying themselves. This will alter, delay, or eliminate consumer consumption. If the losses are semi-permanent, then this buying power disappears from the economy. If it was just delayed or paused, it explains why we’re seeing income catapult so quickly again, and should expect a consumption boom. This data point further adds to the excess savings trend we discussed yesterday.
Over 128,000 Applicants Made 6-Figures A Year Before
Tens of thousands of Canadians that applied for the pandemic income, made over six figures. Even more had income just below that mark. CRA data shows 90,720 people applied for CERB that had an income between $93,259 to $147,667 in 2019. Another 23,900 applicants filed taxes that showed they made between $147,667 and $210,371 last year. In the highest disclosed bracket, 14,070 applied for CERB that made over $210,371 last year. If all approved, this would be between $209.58 million to $1.26 billion of benefits consumed by this demographic.
Canadian CERB Applicants By 2019 Tax Bracket
The number of CERB applicants by 2019 tax bracket, including those that have not filed 2019 taxes.
The largest pool of applicants was relatively low income. The majority, 3,844,090 applicants, made less than $47,630 the year before applying. This represents about 71.45% of the applicants. In some instances, low income households may have made more on CERB. However, there may be cases where they had their income cut in half as well.
The Second Largest Demographic Is Completely Unknown
Another interesting observation in the data is the second largest segment of applicants didn’t file taxes. There were 823,580 CERB applicants who did not file 2019 taxes at the time of application. The read on that is a little more mixed in my opinion. It doesn’t mean they weren’t automatically ineligible. The income tax filing deadline was pushed to September 30, the day these numbers were tallied. Further, the criteria reads:
“Who had employment and/or self-employment income of at least $5,000 in 2019 or in the 12 months prior to the date of their application”
This makes the takeaway a little less obvious. There’s no doubt a number of people that didn’t technically qualify for CERB, took it anyway. There are also a number of people that may have been late on taxes, or earned the $5,000 minimum in 2020. These people would have still been eligible. Basically, not even the government is sure how this will change spending patterns.
Households that didn’t need CERB, but qualified and took it anyway, helps explain the savings glut. Without an income cap on benefits, the cash just helped pad savings accounts. The bad news is, high income households just received a subsidized cheque. The good news is they’ll probably spend that money in the economy when it reopens.
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I received a CERB check, it was automatically given when I applied for employment insurance benefits. I will probably have to return all of the money at tax time next year (I made too much). So, even tho my bank account has grown in size, it won’t be oversized for very long.
who do you think have homes, mortgages, kids, car payments etc. They of course have huge amounts of bills and cerb didnt probably cover half of it. Frankly the fact that it is even news worthy id disgusting to me. They probably paid taxes and ei their whole lives and didnt collect any benefits now you make it out to be an outrage. absolutely atrocious.
This is why there needs to be a skill testing question to read economics blogs.
If CERB was half the money they normally made, they have half the money they would have in the previous year. This means half the amount of GDP generated, and a loss to economic capacity, as the author literally pointed out, while also pointing out they are not making the point you just made.
No one cares that you’re on welfare. Get over yourself.
Youre ‘disgusted’ are you? If you make 6 figures and DONT have any money saved, thats too bad. Paying YOUR bills of a luxury lifestyle isn’t MY problem.
You’ve had it good for so long that youve become entitled? grow up you selfish goof
Canadian households are sitting on a record amount of cash, waiting to be spent. CIBC Economics’ latest report shows tens of billions in cash just sitting in accounts in Q2 2020. The increase is due to a combination of government supports, lack of places to spend, and payment deferrals.
Canadian Households Saved $90 Billion More Than Expected
Canadians are holding onto an astronomical amount of cash in their bank accounts. CIBC estimates households have saved $90 billion more than typical in Q2 2020. They estimate the amount to be equivalent to 4% of consumer spending. So suddenly everyone’s a great saver, in a country with notoriously high household debt? Not exactly.
Government Transfers Equal $2.25 For Each Dollar Of Income Lost
The bank believes this is largely due to government transfers. The lost income fell $100 billion seasonally adjusted at the annual rate (SAAR) for Q2 2020. This was matched with government transfers from programs like CERB, that add up to $225 billion SAAR. To put it bluntly, the government replaced every $1 of income lost, with $2.25 in the quarter. An unprecedented event for a recession.
Canada’s Household Savings Rate Hits 28%
Combine the higher income delivery with restricted spending, and mortgage deferrals – and you get a lot of cash. Prior to the pandemic, the saving’s rate had reached 3.6% – already a worrying climb. During the pandemic, it escalated to as high as 28.2% in June. In periods of recession, savings rates tend to jump as people worry. When most places are shut down, it becomes pretty hard to spend, even if you try.
Canadian Household Savings Rate
The seasoanlly adjusted rate of household savings.
A second lockdown is approaching, but another surge of excess capital is unlikely. Programs are now much more targeted, and payment deferrals aren’t raining from the sky. However, this is still a very large capital pool that’s going to need to be deployed in a more efficient manner soon. However, a more important takeaway is there’s households with massive piles of cash waiting to spend, in an economy that has fewer and fewer players by the day.
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Good way to look at it. Also remember the demographic that saved from their mortgage, doesn’t need a house. It’s just going to be a further wealth gap the government just created.
But… one person’s savings is also another person’s future income. We need to stop viewing savings as a “leakage”. Safe, secure savings are an important component of long term economic growth. Something we’ve come to ignore with our obsession over “stimulus” and loose monetary policy.
This store of savings will play an important role in any future economic recovery. If we let it. On the other hand, if we keep interest rates at zero, then much of that savings will end up just being used for down payments, driving house prices up farther. If you can’t get a return on your money in the bank, gambling on real estate comes to be seen as the “safer” alternative.
If I were a restaurant owner, I don’t know why I would care about future income when rent is due now. Give me those savings! And you could prevent savings from going into non-productive sectors by taxing housing at a more progressive rate and creating a real public housing sector.
I don’t get why savings is important to the economy, when it only means that it’s money that people aren’t spending.
In most recession cash is seen as king.. and no matter how low interest rates go. Cash is held.. Why would anyone invest in a business, and more importantly bonds .??
It sucks for the economy as a whole, but since this website is mainly about housing, one has to wonder if the pile of cash is going to create a run on real state at some point… Maybe next spring/summer when a vaccine is coming and people “think” everything will be back to normal?
While many have saved the cash thanks to a very generous government payout designed to help many put food on the table, this generosity coupled with programs at the provincial level and several deferral schemes only deferred the inevitable and created inflation at the same time.
I am a small business, and like many other small businesses, I have saved the $40,000 just in case.
$30,000.00 of it will be returned. $10,000.00 will be added to income as per the program unless other options or needs decide otherwise.
Also, I expect a lot of defaults of the $40,000.00 as businesses close down cash in hand. The money was not secured.
The biggest winner from all this are real estate speculators. People who own multiple houses got a huge pay day.
Let me give you an example, if you are a speculator that has 4 mortgage homes each with 3000 mortgage due per month. With CERB how much did they gain? 2000 CERB per month for 6 month = 12k. 4 deferred mortgages 3000 x 4 house x 6 months = 72k. Just between mortgage deferrals and CERB they net 72k +12k = 84k or 84,000 in 6 months.
Now if you add house prices increase of 15% of the 4 house at average price of 1 million. 150k x 4 = 600k!
Whats the conclusion? The government used tax payer money to greatly benefit real estate speculators. This is a horrendous crime against all Canadians. Especially young families who cant afford a home and have pay more taxes due to the free money for speculators deficit.
To be honest, it would make a lot more sense to not allow people with multiple houses to defer mortgage payments. It was a good chance to force speculators to sell.
Not to mention that renters weren’t given the option to defer their rent. The government forced banks to give mortgage borrowers a 6-month payment holiday without extending the same courtesy to renters.
No mortgage deferrals should be given to anyone with multiple residential properties period.
The government knew the math, they did it to prop up real estate prices. They pushed inequality further, benefiting only speculators and screwing young families. The Liberals lied to us in the election about foreign ownership tax.
I agree. However it was the banks decision to allow payment deferrals and not the government. The banks benefited as well from the deferrals since the avoided potential defaults, lowered their LTV ratios as property values increased, and increased the profits by capitalizing the deferred interest which is now compounding interest for the life of the mortgage. Banks win, borrowers win and renters, savers, and working class lose as always.
What makes you think the govt will ever support renters? They will always help the land lord until their last breath even if it means sacrificing renters at the alter
Canadian real estate is still booming, but slowing faster than seasonally expected. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows sales made a small decline in October. The decline only shows in the board’s seasonally adjusted numbers. Unadjusted sales still show large growth, but the rate decelerated for the first time since the pandemic.
Canadian Real Estate Sales “Edged Back” 0.7%
Canadian real estate sales are showing some signs pent-up demand is catching up. CREA data shows 56,186 seasonally adjusted sales in October, down 0.7% from the month before. Unadjusted, there were 59,159 sales in the month, up 32.1% from the same month last year. CREA notes sales “edged back” on the seasonally adjusted count, falling from all-time highs. On the unadjusted numbers, we can see sales are strong. They do seem much stronger due to the shifted comparison period though.
Canadian Real Estate Sales
The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.
Sales Growth Slows For The First Time Since The Pandemic
Unadjusted growth was large, but also showed some signs of reality returning. The growth rate of 32.1% is massive when looked at by itself. In context, this shows the first deceleration since April. This decline is more than likely a temporary detour, as comparison months to the shutdown in April and May approach.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Change
The annual percent chage of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.
Looking at sales on a rolling 12-month basis helps to smooth out some of the distortion. The 12-month rolling average of sales reached 43,593 sales for October, up 9.30% from the same month last year. This is the highest seen since July 2017, when sales were cooling after a multi-year build up to that level. The pandemic’s shutdown of sales still skews the numbers, but it gives the growth a little perspective.
Canadian Real Estate Sales: Rolling Average
The 12-month rolling average of Canadian real estate sales.
October was another unusual month, in an unusual year, with a lot of unhelpful and volatile data. In the same year, the all-time low for sales was printed just months before the all-time high. Neither data point is really helpful in the general picture. Real estate sales are doing very well, but not as well as the record smashing numbers would indicate. There’s also the pull-forward effect of lower mortgage rates, which is difficult to gauge in size.
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LONDON — The coronavirus crisis pushed global debt levels to a new high of over $272 trillion in the third quarter, the Institute for International Finance said, as it warned of the “attack of the debt tsunami.”
Among advanced nations, debt surged above 432% of GDP in the third quarter — a 50 percentage points increase from 2019.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/coronavirus-drives-global-debt-to-a-new-record-high.html
Yay!!!!