A wintry summer is brewing for B.C.’s real estate market with soaring interest rates drastically reducing buyer purchasing power while sellers clamber for yesterday’s prices. Home sales fell sharply in May while home values are declining, slowly but surely.
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales fell 16.3 per cent in May adding to April’s 13 per cent decline to a seasonally-adjusted 6,853 units. On an unadjusted basis, sales fell 34 per cent.
While sales remained above levels observed just prior to the pandemic and above the same-month average from 2010-19, momentum is quickly weakening. This is not surprising with fixed mortgage rates well above four per cent and at a 10-year high, while variable rates are rapidly shifting higher. With home prices up 40 per cent during the pandemic, prospective buyers face a very different market, and many have quickly been priced out of ownership. High consumer price inflation is further amplifying affordability challenges for households.
Sales declines were observed in most regions of the province. Specifically, the real estate boards of Chilliwack (-25 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (-20 per cent), which covers Abbotsford-Mission and eastern communities of Metro Vancouver, including Surrey, led the drop in sales while the rest of Metro Vancouver fell 18 per cent. Vancouver Island fell 18 percent, but remained elevated, with more modest declines in the interior and northern markets. In contrast, retiree demand and migration from Alberta continues to support conditions outside Metro Vancouver.
Declining sales are contributing to a quick moderation in market conditions. Fewer sales and steady new listings lifted active listings in the province for a fifth straight month with inventory on the rise in most markets. Sales-to-active listings ratios remain in a range consistent with a sellers’ market, but the rapid decline suggests markets are nearly balanced, with the potential to move into a buyers’ market range.
At $980,324, the average price fell 4.7 per cent from April and marked the first sub-million-dollar reading since November. Consistent with sales, declines were deepest in Chilliwack (-4.3 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (-6.7 per cent), although average prices eroded in most real estate board areas.
After an impressive run where B.C. manufacturing sales increased for seven consecutive months, the streak came to an end in April as sales dipped 2.9 per cent from March to $5.8 billion. Both durable goods (down 1.6 per cent) and non-durable goods (down 4.5 per cent) posted weaker sales.
Key manufacturing areas such as wood products (down 5.9 per cent); transportation equipment (down 5.5 per cent); computer and electronic equipment (down 3.2 per cent); and electrical equipment, appliances and components (down 5.1 per cent) weighed down overall sales. The decline was only partially offset by a few sectors showing gains, such as food manufacturing (up 1.7 per cent), fabricated metal products (up 2.3 per cent) and sales of machinery (up 3.9 per cent).
Over 2022’s first four months, total sales remained 10.1 per cent of last year’s pace with durables (up 6.7 per cent) and non-durables (up 15.1 per cent), considerably ahead of last year’s pace notwithstanding April’s dip in activity. Manufacturing sales activity dipped across the province in May. In Metro Vancouver, sales fell 1.5 per cent and were down 4.3 per cent in the rest of British Columbia.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
A Vancouver fire on the West Side on Friday night was so intense that it could be seen from the West End.
According to Vancouver Fire Services (VFS), crews arrived on the scene of a 3rd alarm residential fire in Point Grey late on Friday, June 17.
By the late morning, the fire was pretty much done, On-duty Assistant Chief Dan Nichols told Daily Hive.
“It was a pretty big structure, but when things collapse in on themselves like that, it can trap hot spots, so it could still be burning in certain areas of the fire; they’re just dealing with stuff like that so that we don’t have a rekindle,” said Nichols.
4812 Belmont Avenue, Vancouver. | Google Streetview screengrab
The Vancouver west side home that was destroyed by a massive fire late Friday had a city permit issued for salvage and abatement – but specifically not for demolition, according to municipal records.
The City of Vancouver database for permits showed that the house at 4812 Belmont Avenue in Point Grey was approved for the salvage/abatement permit on Jan. 25 of this year after almost three years of processing. (The application was started in August 2019.)
In the city permit, the work description showed the approval hinges on the project being “salvage and abatement ... only … to be completed under the supervision of a qualified professional.” It also specifies that “this permit does not authorize demolition, deconstruction or construction work.”
A fire engulfed the home last Friday at around 10 p.m., and social media quickly filled with videos and photos of the flames being visible from downtown and the North Shore. Fire crews said the home was unoccupied and under renovation, and the fire was brought under control by Saturday morning.
Investigators are currently looking into the cause of the fire.
The property is valued at $15,220,000, according to the 2019 assessment.
According to the City of Vancouver, there was a building permit application under review for the property when the fire occurred. The application, made in November 2021, was for the construction of a “2 storey with cellar one-family dwelling with a detached accessory building (garage), at the rear providing 5 parking spaces, having vehicular access from Belmont Ave.”
The previous salvage/abatement permit has now also been revised to a demolition permit “due to fire,” according to the City of Vancouver website.
The applicants in all documents were listed as Canton Excavating Ltd. and an individual named Chen Lin.
Data revealed that 18 of the 19 local markets assessed in the report saw significant year-over-year increases in the sale of luxury homes worth more than $1 million, ranging from detached and attached units, to condominium properties.
The Greater Toronto Area and Metro Vancouver remain red-hot markets, seeing considerable growth in the sale of homes worth more than $3 million, with increases of 112.8 per cent and 75.8 per cent, respectively. Based on data gathered by the Canadian Real Estate Association, the average price of a home in both Ontario and British Columbia has recently exceeded $1 million.
Several other markets also saw notable gains in the sale of luxury homes at over $1 million year-over-year. In Barrie, Ont., 278 units were sold for more than $1 million in 2021, an increase of about 518 per cent compared to the year before. Meanwhile, Saint John reported the sale of 15 units above $1 million each in 2021, an increase of 1,400 per cent when compared to a single sale made in 2020.
Only one market reported a drop in the sale of homes worth more than $1 million; Charlottetown saw a 42.9 per cent decrease in sales from 2020 to 2021.
With considerable demand for luxury homes across the country, CTVNews.ca has compiled a list of Canadian properties currently on the market for at least $1 million.
(Lawrence Lu / Jerry Wang, Macdonald Platinum Marketing)
Year Built: 2013
Property Size: 334 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.67 hectares
Located in the Metro Vancouver area, this European-style home welcomes its guests with six-metre ceilings over the foyer, living and family rooms. Floor-to-ceiling windows offer stunning views while allowing natural light to pour in. The luxury property has five bedrooms, six bathrooms, a home office and a private media room. Its 73-foot yard and covered patio are ideal for enjoying outdoor activities all year long.\
(Kevin Arnason / Todd Simpson, Royal LePage Kelowna)
Year Built: 2010
Property Size: 948.35 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.27 hectares
With its custom-built pool featuring mosaic tiling, an adjacent sports court and a sunken trampoline, this Mediterranean-inspired home is ideal for entertaining. Complete with seven bedrooms and eight bathrooms, the property spans nearly 950 square metres in total. The interior boasts sky-high 6.7-metre ceilings and luxury brand finishes, while an outdoor covered kitchen and pergola give this estate its resort vibe.
(Sona Visual and Zoon Media / Heather Waddell, Sotheby's International Realty Canada Calgary)
Year Built: 2009
Property Size: 437.82 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.1 hectares
This luxury home in Calgary is an architectural marvel, with floor-to-ceiling windows that offer stunning views of nearby mountains and valleys. The open-concept kitchen comes with oak plank flooring and a central island. On the upper level is the master bedroom with a private balcony, large dressing room and closet. With three bedrooms and five bathrooms, the home also has a yoga room and wine cellar.
(Rocco Macri / Trevor Dunn, MaxWell Realty)
Year Built: 1925
Property Size: 280.15 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.3 hectares
Initially built in 1925, this Edmonton luxury home has been completely rebuilt for a more contemporary look and feel. Four bedrooms and five bathrooms span across 2.5 storeys, amounting to more than 4,000 square metres of living space. The master bedroom also comes with its own balcony. Meanwhile, a loft and ensuite bathroom occupy the top floor, and a home theatre fills the lower level. The home also has its own wine cellar and vault for tasting.
(Hooman Aliary, The Agency Development Group Toronto)
Year Built: 2006
Property Size: 929 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.42 hectares
Near Toronto’s Bridle Path community is this timeless luxury home with its own grand foyer and piano lounge. The gourmet kitchen comes with chef-grade appliances and a walk-in fridge, while the master ensuite features its own steam shower and boudoir. A wood-panelled grand family room also offers views of a nearby ravine. On the lower level is a wine cellar, billiard room and exercise lounge with direct access to the inground pool.
(Studio Point De Vue / Joseph Montanaro, Re/Max Action Westmount)
Year Built: 2005
Lot Size: 0.09 hectares
Located in Greater Montreal, this luxury estate with stone exterior sits high on Upper Bellevue, offering extensive views of the metropolitan area below. The custom-built home has five bedrooms, four bathrooms, and a home office. An open-concept chef’s kitchen leads directly into a spacious den for easy access. The property also has an integrated double garage, as well as a landscaped garden surrounding a private pool.
(Amanda Ryan / Rob Moore, Re/Max Realty Specialists)
Year Built: 2016
Property Size: 459.87 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.22 hectares
This lakeside property located on a cul-de-sac in St. John’s comes with private access to Virginia Lake. On the main floor is a great room with windows that span from the floor to its cathedral ceilings, maximizing the outdoor view. The gourmet kitchen features a large island with labradorite granite countertops, a gas cooktop and a walk-in pantry. On the top floor is a loft area overlooking the great room, as well as three bedrooms and a spa-inspired master bathroom.
(Studio Royale / David Dunn, Royal LePage Atlantic)
Year Built: 2011
Property Size: 423.45 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.2 hectares
With four bedrooms and four bathrooms, this Halifax home comes with spectacular views of the Northwest Arm, a key part of Nova Scotia’s coastline. Located lakeside, the property also features its own dock, as well as a putting green. Inside, its kitchen comes with granite countertops, built-in appliances, a breakfast bar and a butler’s pantry. On the top floor is the master bedroom with a walk-in closet and private deck overlooking the water.
(Patty Campbell, Powerhouse Realty PEI)
Year Built: 2020
Property Size: 389 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.17 hectares
Just a 14-minute drive from the heart of Charlottetown, this corner lot property has five spacious bedrooms and just as many bathrooms for a total area of nearly 400 square metres. The kitchen features custom cabinets, a stone backsplash, and a double sink, while the living room has a stone propane fireplace. A soaker tub and large glass shower can be found in the master bathroom, while a recreation room is found in the basement.
(Matthew Gorveatte / Larry Booker, Re/Max East Coast Elite Realty)
Year Built: 2016
Property Size: 435.62 sq. m
Lot Size: 0.21 hectares
Located in Fredericton, this custom luxury home is as spacious as it is stunning. On the upper floor is the master bedroom, with access to an elevated patio with a hot tub and seating area to view the backyard. The main level features an open-concept living space with a two-sided gas fireplace separating the family room from the kitchen. An oversized sunroom overlooks the backyard, while an entertainment room and exercise area fill the lower level.
(Studio Point De Vue / Joseph Montanaro, Re/Max Action Westmount)
A Tudor Revival mansion for your Bridgerton dreams, complete with a carved oak grand staircase and attached coach house. Plus, the back patio comes with a beautiful rose pergola connecting to a lovely tea house at the end of the brick pathway, in case you need to throw an impromptu tea party.
Sitting pretty on a tree-lined street, this New England Colonial Revival home has a grand foyer with an elegant staircase, perfect for a dramatic entrance. Tucked away in the property is a private sunken garden, for Bridgerton-themed picnics.
This elegant mansion was originally built in 1923 (restored in 1997) and is a Bridgerton dream house. With regency accents in every room, the mansion has gardens, walkways, fountains and a pond. All that's missing is a proper regency-inspired ensemble.
A single-family home purchased for around the million-dollar mark may not be much in the city, but a million-dollar condo is still somewhat impressive, whether in terms of location or amenities.
Here's a quick look at what a luxury real estate budget can buy in the city – whether that's $1 million or $50 million – based on hundreds of listings posted on Realtor.ca. Given supply issues noted in most areas of the region's real estate market, it's possible that the listing prices are a ways off what condos are actually selling for.
Listed at $1.02 million, the condo in Vancouver's West Side is in a 55+ building, and comes with a den, high ceilings and lots of windows, as well as a patio. Residents of the building have access to an oxygenated infrared sauna, hydrotherapy tub, theatre and rooftop patio, as well as what the listing agents call an "Asian & Western style restaurant."
A buyer willing to pay an extra $9,000 could find themselves in a two-bedroom-plus-den unit with views of Stanley Park, English Bay and the North Shore Mountains.
The seller is asking $1.028 million for the apartment in a building that allows pets and rentals, and includes access to a gym, sauna and guest suite.
Spending around $1 million buys less in some neighbourhoods than others. There were few options in the Kitsilano area over that mark, but this two-bedroom-plus-den on West 4th Avenue can be had for $1.099 million.
While it does have new floors and baseboard heaters, as well as four parking stalls, it does not appear to have been recently renovated beyond that. The kitchen and fireplace in the 1990s condo appear dated, if not original, as does the décor in the bathrooms.
The price tag seems mostly to be tied to the proximity to Kits Beach and the neighbourhood, rather than the unit itself.
Further south, a buyer willing to spend $2.78 million could find themselves on a patio overlooking the Fraser River.
This just-built penthouse condo has three bedrooms, three full bathrooms and a powder room, as well as a "gourmet chef kitchen," high ceilings, two parking stalls and two storage lockers.
Expanding the budget again to above $4 million yields fewer options, but more luxurious accommodations.
One of the homes in that category is this penthouse located near the University of British Columbia, listed at $4.298 million.
The private rooftop terrace alone is larger than many condos at 1,122 square feet, and it comes with walk-in closets, a "European gourmet kitchen," and high-end appliances.
Those willing to spend more than $10 million only have eight options on Realtor.ca, nearly all of which are downtown.
The listing boasts "thoughtfully laid out floor plans" as well as panoramic views of the city, high-end appliances and finishes and a dressing room that realtors claim feels "like your own private boutique." It too has a large rooftop terrace, this one including an outdoor kitchen, fire pit, hot tub and elevator.
The condo is listed at $12.88 million.
And someone with a lot of cash to spare could move into this penthouse condo in Coal Harbour, listed at $36.9 million.
Situated at the top of the Fairmont Pacific Rim hotel, the four-bedroom condo boasts, as described by the listing, "endless postcard views of the water, mountains and city."
It has two floors, "soaring" ceilings, a private rooftop deck, a gym and yoga room, a built-in entertainment centre and more.
The interior of a penthouse that realtors say is Canada's most expensive condo listing is pictured. (Provided)
What came first, investor demand or a lack of supply? For many, the question of Vancouver’s affordability crisis is a lot like the old chicken-or-egg riddle. There are those who fiercely believe that local governments and homeowners have impeded the progress of new construction over the years, constraining supply and driving up prices. And then there are those who believe that a lot of the new housing that’s brought online targets investors who seek to maximize profit, turning housing into a game of real-life monopoly.
In the past few years, big money investors, also known as institutional investors, have moved into the Lower Mainland to take direct advantage of one of the world’s most lucrative real estate markets. The Vancouver Real Estate Forum, to be held this year on April 12 at the Vancouver Convention Centre, includes a panel discussion on the growing trend of institutional investors partnering with local developers. And experts from investment firms will talk on other panels that cover everything from government policies and the demand for rental housing to the affordability crisis.
“They are aligning with local developer talent that are good at sourcing opportunities and properties – the pension funds are happy to participate directly with guys like us,” said Brent Sawchyn, principal and chief executive officer of development company PC Urban Properties, and a Forum panelist. Mr. Sawchyn’s mid-size company has partnered with several such companies on projects in recent years.
He estimates that, globally, there are about a dozen markets for pension fund types to inject their money and Vancouver is a draw. They are looking for markets where population and business opportunities are on the rise. For developers, such investor partnerships have become more appealing because of the high cost involved in development.
“If you’ve got $10-billion of money that you want to put into real estate in certain markets in Canada – let’s say multifamily apartment buildings – you need to cast your net pretty broadly to be able to fill that need, to place that amount of money,” Mr. Sawchyn said.
“The pension funds and ‘near pension funds’ are all interested in participating in real estate so that they can, at the end of the day, attract an ongoing return for their investment – so they can go buy existing apartment buildings or they can participate with us, where we can build a brand new apartment building that is smack clean out-of-the-box brand new, with a lot less requirements for repairs and maintenance and then generate an attractive return for them.”
Some housing advocates have accused the institutional investor of pushing prices higher because they snap up old apartment stock and seek healthy returns. Mr. Sawchyn and others argue that they are serving the opposite purpose, because rental apartments would be otherwise too risky to build. For big money investors, however, apartment buildings “are very well sought after and prized,” he says.
“Without institutional investment into, say, new apartment buildings, we wouldn’t be delivering any stock.
“Some argue, ‘this is a new building, rents are expensive, it’s not affordable.’ But if we’ve got 75,000 to 100,000 people moving here a year to the Lower Mainland, we need to build housing. And without pension funds participating in housing, we are not going to have any more stock. Rents will keep going up.”
Housing advocates have accused the institutional investor of pushing prices higher because they snap up old apartment stock and seek healthy returns.DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS
But it’s also true that the big investor is in the Vancouver market expressly because growth is the expectation. Some argue that anything that gets in the way, such as government regulation that restricts rents, or building heights, or costly development fees, or public engagement that stalls projects for years, for example, impedes the delivery of supply. For some, less regulation of the housing system is the most effective way of meeting the future demand.
Simon Fraser University professor of finance, Andrey Pavlov, argues that institutional investors are generally better landlords than mom-and-pop landlords, and regulations and taxes designed to cool the market only add to their financial burden, making housing less affordable. We shouldn’t be just building for the current population – we should be building to house future populations, says Mr. Pavlov.
“We have constrained population growth in the Lower Mainland because of limits on housing,” he says. “There is that additional complication that maybe you have investment demand that has nothing to do really with current population growth. In my view, we should provide enough housing even for that, and it can be done, but there is a more difficult argument to be made there. However, in the rental market it is very, very clear.”
The residential rental vacancy rate, he says, should get to at least 3 per cent to adequately supply the population.
Patrick Condon, University of B.C. urban design professor and author of Sick City: Disease, Race, Inequality and Urban Land, argues that the housing crisis stems from the commodification of land, which is no longer based on its value for housing, but for its value as a global asset class. In order to solve the housing problem, he says, you have to control the price of urban land.
“Housing is no longer valued for its utility. It is now valued as a commodity, just like gold, Bitcoin or stocks and bonds,” he said in an e-mail. “We have moved from an economy based largely on wages to one based largely on investments, with investors now in the driver’s seat. It’s extra complicated, because most of us participate in it and benefit from it, with our RRSPs and our pension fund contributions, not to mention the baby boomers benefitting from a passive gain of $4-million for their Dunbar home.”
Developer David Fullbrook says that he’s not sure that a glut of new supply will bring prices down.
“I look at the paradigm and it has got too many opposing forces.”
There are a lot of constraints on available land, and land cost is high. He says it means that only a few major players with deep pockets can afford to play.
“By and large, it’s more the commodification of housing that is fundamentally a problem, that we just haven’t identified as being a real thing. We haven’t allowed that to happen for health care and we have allowed it to happen for housing – and now that die has been cast it’s going to be very hard to unwind that, I would guess,” he said.
Mr. Fullbrook, who has been in the industry for 30 years and spent most of his career in the U.S., partners with investors and builds mostly commercial developments in B.C. and Alberta, including some multifamily residential.
“When the dot.com collapsed in 2000, that sort of released a lot of capital and that money began to flow into commercial real estate. I’m talking globally. … When that money started to flow, it never stopped and it began to accelerate. So what you’ve got now … is really institutional capital that is driving predominantly home development.
“I think the big collapse was obviously the Liberal government’s lack of attention to housing and the value that was created for them politically by this Chinese inflow of capital, this foreign investment money that really protected Vancouver from some of the cyclical swings that were happening throughout North America.
“I always look at Vancouver investors as being rewarded for speculation. They buy property and they may over pay. They don’t really know what a downturn looks like. So there has always been money to be made, and the province is constantly trying to manipulate the system to drive or incentivize capital to behave in a certain way – and we are just too late.
“Since Expo, there has been 30 years of unprecedented demand for B.C. real estate and it doesn’t seem to be impacted by typical market swings that would make people a little more cautious, particularly the speculative venturers who don’t really add a lot of value to the process, in my own view.”
Mr. Fullbrook finds the increasing rents worrisome and is concerned about his own children’s futures. He said he just priced a 128-unit, 20-storey concrete tower at $650 buildable per foot, not including land, profit and interest to cover the financing. The means the consumer is looking at about $500,000 for a 500-square-foot condo. That’s about 10 times the average salary, compared to when he was starting out and a home might be three times the average salary. That creates a “vicious circle of haves and have-nots,” Mr. Fullbrook says.
And investors are, by necessity, driven by profit.
“We had a deal we were quite interested in, and there was an investor group that was interested in the project, and putting capital in, and what they wanted us to do was something that I just would not do. I would not undermine a community that was thriving, and in a good place, to make a quicker yield.
“That was really what they were driven by: ‘we want to make that money in three years and get it out and then get it back in.’
“I don’t judge it,” he adds. “I just recognize it as being a factor of the market, that there is an avaricious quality to investors.”
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